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The Week in Review - a Little Overbought Short-term?

We have been in a cyclical bull market since late November, and markets have rallied some 20% across the board. Markets now look somewhat overbought in the short term and could easily pause and consolidate here. Our own call in August last that the sell off was a bottoming process looks to have been the right one, and the technical indicator 'Dow Theory for the 21st Century'  confirmed a bull market in late December. Now, the other equally powerful Coppock Indicator has registered a 'Buy' signal on the Brazilian stock market, which may well be leading the emerging markets higher after a difficult year. Read More...

Coppock Indicator Gives a 'Buy' Signal on ISEQ & Brazil

The Coppock Indicator is a technical indicator that provides 'Buy' signals on markets, and it has one of the very finesyt records in that regard. At the end of December, there was a Coppock 'buy' signal on the Irish market and at the end of January just gone, the Coppock Indicator gave a 'Buy signal on the Brazilian market. This week I look at the 1, 3 & 5-year returns on the Irish and Brazilian markets from 1970 following Coppock 'Buy' signals. Read More...

A Valuation Ratio That is Predictive

This week we look at the price-to-10-year average earnings ratio on the US equity market and compare how the market is valued today relative to the the past century. This valuation metric is predictive and I outline how that is in the subscribers' area. The simply facts are that when the valuation of the market is overextended relative to history the subsequent returns are miserable. And the corollary is also true. Read More...

Bloomberg Mocks Investment Strategists!

A hilarious article in Bloomberg surveyed the late 2011 views of several investment strategists in high profile investment banks to find the majority were bearish coming into 2012 and are having to scramble backwards as the markets power ahead. In the subscribers' area, I provide a copy of the article. Read More...

Beware Sellers of Guaranteed Absolute Return Funds

Products sellers know no boundaries when it comes to flogging investment products to private investors. Absolute return funds are designed to mitigate the downside in markets and they must give up some of the upside in markets to pay for such protection (using derivatives to insure against the downside). Yet, I notice a number of investment intermediaries selling absolute return funds with a guarantee. Yes, I'm a cautious investor and would like some downside protection - then again, why not cover the downside twice? The scared investor wants this protection so why not sell it to him. The only trouble is that while this guarantees you no downside it more or less guarantees you no upside. Heads a win for the product seller, tails a win for the product seller. Now where exactly is the regulator or is it that they don't understand? Read More....

Upcoming 1-Day Seminar - Dublin, Sat, 25th Feb 2012

The next 1-day investment training seminar is in Dublin on Saturday, 1st October next. The focus, as always, is on dealing with the critical issues that you need to overcome in order to be in a position to implement a life-long investment plan - one that can take account of the ongoing volatility in markets, that can take the emotion out of investing and that can be implemented in a busy lifestyle. In addition, we are continuing our special offer where you can bring a young adult along for FREE on the day (ideal age 16- 23 years). For details, send an email to info@gillenmarkets.com or call the office at (01 2871400). Click Here for more details and costs of the day.

Quote of the Week - Ben Graham

"....the function of the margin of safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future"

Ben Graham, The Intelligent Investor